Fantasy Racing: Bet on Hendrick drivers at Phoenix

In my Texas preview, I predicted Jeff Gordon would be up front when the checkered flag fell, but wouldn't be the guy going to Victory Lane. I was really figuring on him getting a top-5 in Fort Worth and then coming to Phoenix, where he would end his long winless drought. So, does "The Guru" now dare to look into his crystal ball and predict that Gordon could very well go from 0-and-47 to two in a row? Yes, that's exactly what I'm aiming at.

The DuPont Chevy driver faded to fourth at Martinsville, but he led 147 laps and I think that run will translate well to Phoenix. Secondly, he's conquered the 1-mile track before and has seven other top-5s. Thirdly, there's no downside with Gordon right now. His worst finish this year is still the season-opening Daytona 500, where he came home 13th. In the past four races, fourth is the lowest he's been at the checkered flag and his average finish in the opening seven events is a sporty 4.6. Fourth, as I make my case for Gordon winning the Subway 500, the drought's over and the pressure is off. He might have won 81 Sprint Cup races prior to Texas, yet it was clear there was some anxiety about not getting back to Victory Lane and Gordon nearly blew it at the end pushing his car too hard. Fifth and finally, Gordon did a Goodyear tire test at New Hampshire just before Easter along with Kyle Busch, David Ragan and David Stremme. Getting laps in on a flat 1-mile track just prior to going to Phoenix is a big bonus.

So, there you have it: five reasons why Jeff Gordon could win at Phoenix. There's also one big problem that could prevent him from doing that and his name is Jimmie Johnson, who's looking for a fourth consecutive win in the Arizona desert. You have to figure the odds are he can't keep it going, but on the other hand the California driver seems to be only getting better. In each of his three Phoenix wins, Johnson has led more laps. In the first one he was out front for 55 laps, the second 120 and last fall was on the point for 217 circuits. Then there's the matter of his average finish in the past five Phoenix races; it's a microscopic 1.8 and third is Johnson's worst outcome in the past three Sprint Cup races this year with a win and a runner-up in the other two.

With Gordon's spring win in 2007, car owner Rick Hendrick is looking for a record fifth victory in a row at Phoenix. If Jeff and Jimmie don't deliver, then maybe Mark Martin can. A year ago, driving for DEI, he had the lead late but had to pit for fuel and wound up fifth. Raise your hand if you think he's with a better team and will have a better car. Also don't forget he's won at Phoenix before, led three of his past five starts, and his Kelloggs/Carquest Chevy team has begun to find the groove with two sixth-place finishes and a seventh in its past three outings.

Two other guys I really think have a shot at winning Phoenix and scoring a big chunk of points for SCC players are Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart. Hamlin loves the flat tracks and I really think the fact that he led 296 laps at Martinsville should be kept in mind. Stewart has already paid a visit to Victory Lane at Phoenix and also has a runner-up finish. Not to mention, his new team is red-hot, putting up a third-place run at Martinsville followed by fourth place in Texas.

Big bucks (SCC value 22.7 and up)

If you have Jeff Gordon (24.7) or Jimmie Johnson (24.3) you can't go wrong. Denny Hamlin (22.7) is also a good buy and there will be enough help among the "budget picks" to let you squeeze him on a team with either Gordon or Johnson.

Serious coin (SCC value 20.0 to 22.6)

Tony Stewart is my top pick here at a still nice price of 22.0. No one else here really rings my bell, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. (22.0) should be top-10 material. A runner-up there a year ago, Kurt Busch (20.3) needs some consideration, but his Martinsville performance is probably going to scare me off. Greg Biffle (22.3) is also worth a thought.

Budget boys (SCC value 13 .0 to 20.0)

Mark Martin (19.7) has a great price for a potential top-5 run. Ryan Newman (18.0) fits that mold as well. I also think teammates Marcos Ambrose (15.3) and David Reutimann (17.6) are going to be of some potential help, as will A.J. Allmendinger (15.9). Another guy to keep an eye on in this group is Juan Pablo Montoya (18.1). His worst finish over the past three races is 12th and his average finish over that span is 9.3 so JPM seems to have finally begun to find some consistency.

Debit … not credit

Up on top, why go with Carl Edwards, who "might" have a good run, when you can go with Gordon, Johnson or Hamlin, who "will" have strong runs. Same thing goes for Kyle Busch. Both of those guys will be decent but can you picture them winning? I can't. In the "middle" values, teammates Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, and to a lesser extent Clint Bowyer are just a little bit off the top teams right now. Would you pick any of those three over Tony Stewart? Among the potential "budget boys," here's another question: Would you take Kasey Kahne over Mark Martin or Ryan Newman? I wouldn't. Although he's a lot of help on the big, banked tracks, Brian Vickers is probably not the way to go either at Phoenix. Martin Truex Jr. ran eighth a year ago, but something is really not clicking with that team these days.

Guru Garrow's gang

OK, I got a little crazy and went off the deep end at Texas on race morning and no I wasn't on any kind of mind-altering drugs when I junked my team just before the green flag, putting David Gilliland as my floor pick. I also got rid of Jeff Gordon in favor of Jimmie Johnson (I didn't get too burned on that one), teaming him up with Gilliland, David Reutimann, Dale Jr. and Denny Hamlin. The 621 points I collected broke a string of three straight races where I garnered 700-plus, averaging 735 with a high of 758. So to get back in the game this week, I'm going with Marcos Ambrose as my budget pick. Then, I'm going to add Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin and Ryan Newman, replacing Johnson, Junior and Reutimann, and I'm going to keep Mr. Hamlin.

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.